A new graph of the Gartner hype cycle for emerging technologies has been popping up on a variety of blogs. If you haven't seen it yet, the graph charts the path that many nascent technologies take from launch, through irrational exuberance, through disillusionment and ultimately to that 'a-ha moment' that leads to measured and rational mainstream adoption. It's classic 'Crossing the Chasm' stuff...
What's most interesting to me is that Gartner forecasts that many of the technologies that we so-called social media insiders put so much time, energy and brainpower towards -- in other words, the technologies we seem to take for granted -- are 2-5 years away from mainstream adoption, regardless of where they sit relative to the hype cycle.
Microblogging and cloud computing? Nearing the "Peak of Inflated Expectations;" 2-5 years from mainstream adoption. Social computing, video telepresence and virtual worlds? Heading into (or already in) the "Trough of Disillusionment;" likely to see mainstream adoption in 2-5 years. Simple social tools like wikis, social network analysis and location-aware applications (which presumably includes mobile social software) are all trending toward enlightenment (that a-ha moment I mentioned) and productivity or usefulness, yet even these are all 2-5 years from mainstream adoption.
So what's the lesson? There are three, actually:
1) The next time you're chatting with your aunt in Peoria -- or that CMO in Cleveland -- you shouldn't be shocked that they haven't heard of (much less used) some new technology or service that has you and your ambient friends all a-Twitter (pun intended.) This is probably true even if Advertising Age or BusinessWeek or the New York Times has written a puffy trend piece about it.
2) The next time you feel inclined to write off some new, over-hyped thing as a passing fad that has passed away you may want to stop and consider that outside of our little, well-insulated clique of early adopters, it actually hasn't even started to happen yet. Sure, some technologies will never cross the chasm (remember the way DAT was going to revolutionize the music industry?) but just because we're tired of it we shouldn't assume that it has outlived its usefulness.
3) Let's be sure not to confuse the early poster children of any technology revolution with the longer term potential and more reasonable expectations that we might have for the category those poster children represent. For example, don't confuse cyber-flare-out Second Life with the larger opportunity inherent in public virtual worlds.
What else do you take away from the Gartner hype cycle for emerging technologies?
