I'm not going to write about the online video joint venture between NBC Universal and News Corp (sardonically dubbed Clown Co by Google, as reported by TechCrunch.) I know it has turned into one of our industry's big stories this week, but frankly I think it is unlikely to have the level of impact everyone expects and there are many others who are already providing plenty of food for thought around this topic (see the linkroll at the end of this post if you want to read some of the coverage and commentary.)
But all of this talk about video -- along with some work we're doing here at Digitas to frame the future of video advertising for some of our clients -- sent me to comScore's Video Metrix report for some perspective. Here's what I see:
In January 2007 (the most recent month for which comScore reports data), roughly 123 million people watched a total of 7.3 billion streams, accounting for roughly 18.6 billion viewing minutes.
And way back in October 2006, roughly 107 million people watched (wait for it) 7.3 billion streams, accounting for roughly 18.2 billion viewing minutes.
The stats during the intervening months have fluctuated up and down, but essentially online video viewership has hit a plateau. Sure, more people are watching -- although the delta between 107 million people and 123 million people looks more like incremental growth than the exponential month-over-month growth that you may have been led to believe. But those people aren't watching more... In fact, with more people watching, the data indicates that each person is actually watching less...
Don't get me wrong; 7.3 billion videos is a lot of viewership -- particularly for a medium that essentially did not exist just a few years ago -- and if the media companies can find effective ways to monetize each view this could be good business. But I would still suggest that the numbers are a sign of distress that, in the end, may mean that big broadcast and GooTube are fighting for control over something that has already peaked, rather than a medium on the rise.
I'd love to hear your thoughts. What do you think needs to happen for online video to realize greater potential and resume its climb up the growth curve?
Clown Co round-up: PC Magazine, Advertising Age, LA Times, TechCrunch, Scott Karp, Charlene Li, CenterNetworks, Fred Wilson, Jeff Jarvis, Mark Cuban (and I'm sure I've missed plenty of others.)
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