7 trends that defined 2007

Where does the time go? 

It seems like only yesterday I was reading everyone's 2007 predictions and looking forward to all the things 2007 would hold for the media and marketing industries.  Now, here we are in December, BusinessWeek's Jon Fine has already broken the seal on 2008, and even though there are still a few weeks left for an industry-rattling bombshell I thought it might be a good time to look back at the things that made 2007, well, 2007.

Here are my picks for the trends that defined the businesses of media, marketing and advertising in 2007.

1) Merger Mania.  We've seen plenty of M&A activity before 2007, but this year it seems that a week didn't go by without somebody buying somebody else.  Google acquired Doubleclick, creating what will arguably be the largest digital advertising platform and quite possibly the next best thing to an online ad monopoly.  Microsoft shelled out a chunk of cash for aQuantive in a deal that brings a large seller (MSN), a large buyer (Avenue A/Razorfish) and supposedly independent third party ad server (Atlas) together under one big conflict-of-interest roof.  Not to be outdone (although he was quite clearly outdone), Sir Martin bought ad network seller 24/7 RealMedia for his WPP Group of agencies.  Publicis Groupe acquired my alma mater Digitas in a bold play to transform a fairly traditional agency holding company into a digital powerhouse.  My head is spinning... 

2) Presence and Accounted For.  Twitter. Jaiku (acquired by Google this year.) Pownce.  Justin.tv.  Ustream. Utterz.  I could go on.  2007 was the year when the best answer to the question 'what are you doing' was 'checking out the private beta of some new presence application or another.'  Susie Homemaker in Peoria most likely has no idea what any of this means, but for the social media cognoscenti 2007 meant discovering all the different ways people can connect with other people, in real time, anywhere bits can be transferred over the ether.

3) Facebook Frenzy.  Remember MySpace?  Me neither.  OK sure, MySpace is still the largest social network but Facebook exploded in 2007.  First, Zucky (I call him Zucky) opened up the Facebook API and every ad executive in North America joined up and assembled their network of fake friends.  After that, Facebook group and Facebook app became fixtures on just about every brand's emerging media strategy (even though neither of these things is a strategy - they're just tactics - wake up people.)  And of course in the past few weeks, Facebook's new Beacon social ad program ruffled some feathers -- although at the end of the day, it doesn't seem like people really care all that much.  If you step back and look at this year's social networking developments, Google's Open Social is probably the more important announcement but I don't think we've felt the impact of Open Social yet.

4) The Mobile Year That Wasn't.  I vaguely recall a number of industry prognosticators predicting that 2007 would be a boom year for mobile marketing.  Every so often, a mobile vendor still tries that line on me and the year is practically over.  Just last week, I spoke to a reporter from the AMA who is writing a piece about how 2008 will be The Year of Mobile.  Obviously, 2007 wasn't.  I'm speaking specifically for the United States here - I know that readers in other regions are already neck deep in a mobile marketing future.  The iPhone is really cool (although, no, I still don't have one.)  Google's Android and the Open Handset Alliance sound cool too and promise to have broader impact on how mobile devices work.  But until we see fundamental changes at the carrier level (including more consumer-friendly practices, more interoperability and more cost-effective pricing plans - fat chance) I don't think we'll see mobile marketing take off the way mobile pundits say it will.

5) The Birth of the Virtual Natives.  I just checked -- my MarketingProfs Second Life webinar was held in January 2007.  That was at the height of Second Life mania, during which a bunch of brands jumped blindly into SL and after which many marketers dismissed the metaverse as a flash in the pan, even as new virtual world platforms like Kaneva, virtualMTV and others launched.  All very interesting, but I am a firm believer in the 3D web not because of these grown-up virtual worlds but because of Webkinz and Club Penguin (acquired by Disney this year.)  Millions of five year-olds around the globe spend hours per day interacting with one another, through avatars, across boundaries of geography and time.  Just as twenty-somethings and tweens that grew up with the web are "digital natives" that use technology in ways that boomers and even Xers have trouble understanding, today's kids and tweens are "virtual natives" for whom living and interacting in alternate digital worlds may become second nature.  Watch this space -- and see what happens when virtual worlds behaviors go mainstream and spill over to other demographic audiences.  My sixty-something-year-old mother in New York (who incidentally barely knows how to turn on her computer) already uses Webkinz to connect a few nights each week with her eight-year-old neice and six-year-old nephew in Virginia.  Do not underestimate the significance of his trend -- even if you think Second Life is a load of crap.

6) Writers Wronged.  As the year winds down, we are suffering through a strike of the Writers Guild and more episodes of Deal or No Deal than any nation should be forced to stomach.  For several years, broadcast big wigs have been flexing their muscles with regard to unauthorized online sharing of television clips and crowing about the importance of digital to their growth strategies.  This year, the writers -- who haven't been properly compensated for the online use of their talents -- cried foul and brought the production of new, professional (scripted) content to a halt.  In the ultimate irony, the advertisers who have remained skittish about running their precious 30s before consumer generated videos on YouTube are now forced to run their 30s during wave after wave of cookie-cutter reality TV programs (which, if you think about it, are just network-curated consumer generated content...)  Time will tell whether the strike drives the further mainstreaming of online video, as some have predicted, but even so I think this is a defining moment for 2007. 

7) This Space Intentionally Left Blank. For you, of course.  Not like that cheesy "YOU" are the Person of the Year or "YOU" are the Agency of the Year -- but "YOU" as in I'd like to hear what trend (or trends) you think defined 2007.  So chime in... what would you tag as the 7th trend?

Comments

[Nate Westheimer]

I think we started to see the early phases of a "semantic web" with launches from PowerSet, Hakia, Twine, AdaptiveBlue, etc.

[Daniel]

Greg -

Post #7 is so Time "Person of the Year."

I think 2007 may be the year experiential marketing finally earned a spot at the big boys table.

Creating positive experiences is something that's extremely, well, obvious...but also often overlooked. Whether it's design or utility, people will use a product or service not because it's something they can't get anywhere else (maybe it is) but because it makes them feel a certain way.

Also, call me old-media inclined, but I like 2007 as the year direct mail reestablished its position as an important marketing tool.

While experiential marketing, social networks and mobile (cough) are the trends for 2008, I think people still like a solid piece of direct mail to make a point.

Finding a good social network tool or that killer mobile app right now can be a crapshoot; on the other hand, good direct mail reflects good salesmanship of an idea. And that, I think, is at the very core of marketing.

But what do I know?

[Daniel]

Thanks for the linkbait, by the way!

[Adpuppet]

Hm, this got me thinking of a post on AdLand I recently read mentioning how 2007 is the year we ran out of ideas...rather entertaining, whether or not you fully agree...

http://commercial-archive.com/node/141948

[Ryan Karpeles]

#7. A return to marketing fundamentals. Kindness, authenticity, transparency, social utility, charity, friendliness, etc, etc. All the values that started to erode in traditional marketing made a (much needed) comeback.

Let's hope it stays that way into 2008 and beyond...

[Ann Handley]

7. This was the year that blogs were embraced by the mainstream. Greg's Mom likely gets what a blog is. (Did she at the start of 2007?) (And, possibly, maybe yours, too.)

Another 7. This was the year that personal audio and video communication exploded in a big way. Thanks to small, easy-to-use devices like the "soccer Mom" Flip camera, everyone from my co-workers to, well, suburban soccer Moms have embraced it.

[David Reich - my 2 cents]

Maybe 2008 will be the year that the first really big successful marketing use of social media brings a surge of other marketers into the arena. Most will be copycats and will likely fall flat. But some marketers will figure out how to really use some form (or forms) of social media to catch an audience and convert it into some form of action -- sales, political action, ??? Let's talk about it a year from now.

[Helen T]

I agree with Ryan's comments on blogs, and also engaging with colleagues to monitor blogs, and understanding the weight that they carry with our customers, and potential customers. I think that helped me when I asked the business if I could write the blog about what we are doing on SL, there is some good understanding.

And Greg, I love your virtual natives comments! Its been a hard sell getting any traction on SL in the business, but I stand firm that virtual worlds have an absolute role to play going forward, even if we're not sure which one it will be, or if the many will become almost as one, as has been much touted. The big differences for me in 2008 is that hopefully more brands will think about why they are in SL/There/Kaneva and we'll see the disappearance of the "build it and they will come" mentality.

[Lewis Green]

Greg,

I'm not much of a prognosticator nor to I follow trends, but if anyone had told me in 2006 that I would virtually meet hundreds of people because I joined blog nation, I wouldn't have even know what they were referring to. The growth and potential for social media seems to me to be the next big marketing tool for businesses of all sizes.

[Mack Collier]

#7 - 2007 was the year companies became aware of and began to monitor the blogosphere. Hopefully 2008 will be the year they convert awareness into action.

[Mack Collier]

#7 - 2007 was the year companies became aware of and began to monitor the blogosphere. Hopefully 2008 will be the year they convert awareness into action.

[Cam Beck]

I like Ann's and Mack's. But if we're to accept that, doesn't it give credibility to Time's decision to name "You" Person of the Year?

I'm not complaining, and I'm not saying it's right or wrong that they took that road. Maybe, after all, Time actually had something to do with it.

What are your thoughts?

[Yianni Garcia]

Great Post Greg!

Nice way of bleding the recap to include digital/social media milestones as well as more general issues. I would also say that the presidential race and the effects social media has had in how candidates campaign and fund raise, has been revolutionized in 2007.

[Matt Dickman]

Greg -- I think that 2007 will mark the year that big marketers lead the way for mid/small companies to really participate in social media. Lead by companies like Dell, big marketers are listening, engaging and acting through social media. Their moves are signaling change for smaller companies who need case studies and campaign results to back up their decisions to upper management. It's the year that listening made a move on talking in the marketing universe.

[Gavin Heaton]

What happened to my insightful comment? Captured? Lost? Damn, wish I could remember it!

[WriTerGuy]

As Daniel said, experiential marketing - specifically, the experience delivered by Alternate Reality Games. Especially ARGs that are about something, such as Year Zero and World Without Oil.