In a recent Reuters interview, Gartner analyst Steve Prentiss predicts a drop off in Second Life hype, followed by a stablization and trend toward sustainable growth. This official Gartner statement comes on the heels of a blogosphere debate over whether Second Life hype has peaked (Dugan, Walsh, Zimmer)and if we might be headed toward a Second Life backlash in mainstream media.
Now, you could argue that I've contributed to some extent to the "outing" of Second Life - or that I at least tried to temper the blind enthusiasm in my MarketingProfs article (btw, a new article hits next week, leading up to the January 11th webinar.)
Even today I spoke with a reporter from a major market newspaper, as he was prepping a story about Second Life that, based on our conversation, is bound to present a sober look at the metaverse.
A couple of other things I found interesting in the Reuters Q&A:
- As seems to be the case in most of the press coverage, there was no mention of the metaverse at large. Second Life has been the media's darling but there are dozens of (more?) other metaverse platforms all vying for traction. There are still other companies that are working their own twist on avatar-based platforms or 3D web that I wouldn't class as metaverses at all. I think it is shortsighted for us to center the entire 3D/metaverse conversation around a single (albeit intriguing) player in a diverse space.
- Gartner's Prentiss postulates that Linden is a strong target for acquisition, and cites Google and Microsoft as potential suitors. Both companies are experimenting with 3D environments with their "earth" products, so why not?
As much as I'm tired of the hype (which I think cause as much harm as good for all involved) I would also caution that the counterhype also be taken with a grain of salt. Always remember that Second Life (or any metaverse platform) is less interesting for that it actually is today than for what it represents...
